Occasional Reader 3/12/2020 5:59:37 AM

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lucius septimius 3/12/2020 6:02:44 AM

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Reply to Occasional Reader in 1:

Not surprising since everyone's dead.

doppelganglander 3/12/2020 7:19:41 AM

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buzzsawmonkey 3/12/2020 7:24:36 AM

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JCM 3/12/2020 7:28:33 AM

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Reply to lucius septimius in 2:

And Trump kilt me!

buzzsawmonkey 3/12/2020 7:34:38 AM

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lucius septimius 3/12/2020 7:34:55 AM

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buzzsawmonkey 3/12/2020 7:38:05 AM

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Reply to lucius septimius in 7:

They're pulling the same thing at my institution of higher learning.

vxbush 3/12/2020 7:42:03 AM

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In #8 buzzsawmonkey said: They're pulling the same thing at my institution of higher learning.

And the one near me. The crazies are in control, aren't they? I can see that the numbers are concerning, but I'm not trying to make anyone run for the hills, nor am I instigating panic on Facebook like some of my friends. 

I spoke yesterday with a masters in nursing nurse who just rolled his eyes at the insanity. 

lucius septimius 3/12/2020 7:43:34 AM

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Reply to vxbush in 9:

Just remember the one Truth of our time:  Orange Man Bad.  Then the panic all makes sense; it's necessary even.

vxbush 3/12/2020 7:47:29 AM

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In #10 lucius septimius said: Just remember the one Truth of our time:  Orange Man Bad.  Then the panic all makes sense; it's necessary even.

Sigh. Yes. The virus DTS is by far the more serious illness out there. 

buzzsawmonkey 3/12/2020 7:48:58 AM

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I look at all this quarantining and shutting down, and I remember when people proposed quarantining known bearers of the AIDS virus and shutting down the bath houses and backroom bars that were the primary sources of spreading contagion.  

The howls of the gay-rights movement rang to the welkin; quarantining known carriers of the virus was equated to "putting homosexuals in concentration camps," and shutting down the anonymous-sex pesthouses was called "cultural genocide."  It was proposed that these contagion centers instead "engage in safe-sex education" by offering free condoms and posting instructional texts.

Syrah 3/12/2020 8:31:05 AM

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Another day for the stock markets to go on sale. 

I have a portion of my IRA in cash. It is burning a hole in my pocket but, it looks like I can reasonably wait til next week before I sweep in and buy up all of those Russian oil company stocks.  

Syrah 3/12/2020 8:33:01 AM

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Reply to Syrah in 13:

Heck, if I wait two weeks, I might be able to buy ALL of the Russian oil company stocks and still have most of my cash holdings left over for pharmaceuticals and the stocks of companies that sell stuff to old people. 

doppelganglander 3/12/2020 8:33:04 AM

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Reply to lucius septimius in 7:

They can't keep the email server running,  let alone conduct online classes. My program is entirely online and was designed that way, and we still have glitches. They might as well shut down for the rest of the semester. 

Syrah 3/12/2020 8:37:16 AM

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I confess that I don’t understand the market panic.

the oil panic over the Russian/ Saudi price war, I get that. The house of Saud and my big fuel guzzling Diesel are going to win that little spat. Fun times. It is the rest of the market panic that looks completely irrational to me. 

Have the DNC/MSM really convinced people that this is the end times?

lucius septimius 3/12/2020 8:39:13 AM

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Reply to Syrah in 16:

One question is what sort of impact Corona will have on productivity as well as on consumption.  It is already having some effect on Chinese production and it's unclear how much more disruption will result in the movement of goods and demand for goods and services.  

Syrah 3/12/2020 8:39:45 AM

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Reply to Syrah in 16:

in five years time, there will be people complaining about how they didn’t t take advantage of this springs market discount. 

Syrah 3/12/2020 8:43:44 AM

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Reply to lucius septimius in 17:

china is in a pickle. The rest of the world will have to diversify out of China. Maybe “will” is the wrong word.  They really should figure out ways to not be dependent on a single source.  Some will take the lesson to heart many won’t.

i think that we will see some inflation when the demand side kicks back in and the supply side catches up.

but all of that is just guess work by me. 

Syrah 3/12/2020 8:45:58 AM

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With China production suffering a reduction due to their quarantines, will that mean that US consumer products sold to China will be in greater demand?

Syrah 3/12/2020 8:58:17 AM

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Will this create a long term demand for telecommuting technology?

or will this be only temporary?

if it is long term, what other affects on people’s behavior and purchasing choices will result?

Syrah 3/12/2020 9:07:50 AM

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If telecommuting becomes more common, will people buy fewer cars since they will be putting fewer miles on their cars?

will delivery based businesses like amazon be able to sell more stuff to people that will have fewer reasons to leave their homes?

manufacturing requires people to work in a fixed location. That won’t change.

or will there be no large changes to how we do things? Will two years from now look very much like two years ago?

Syrah 3/12/2020 9:15:20 AM

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Prior to this panic, there was a consensus that the US would see changes in its economy based on the aging of the overall population.

that has not changed. America is getting older.  The older population will dominate the demand side of the economy. 

Where can we take advantage of that?

does this panic in the market discount things that will do well when the panic is over?

JCM 3/12/2020 9:30:24 AM

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Reply to Syrah in 23:

Economic changes - the underlying economy is healthy, the stock market doesn't like uncertainty, add the Saudi / Russia oil spat and that the market is overvalued because of the quantitative easing the markets will settle but lower. With the Trump deregulation and tax breaks companies will bring manufacturing on-shore.

Telecommuting will be at a high level than before, most will go back to the routine, but a fair number will like the arrangement and stick with it.

buzzsawmonkey 3/12/2020 10:10:54 AM

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Supposedly, the Israelis are well on the way towards a vaccine against coronavirus.

Personally, I support their denying it to any person who's a documented BDS member/agitator/participant.

buzzsawmonkey 3/12/2020 10:22:57 AM

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When there's a change in life and idiots panic, markets always go
Downturn
Selling on stock exchanges becomes quite manic, 'cause they always go
Downturn
But if you have your wits about you, don't join the stampeding
You can pick up at bargain prices investments that you're needing
And you won't lose
You'll come out fine if you ignore the scare
Just keep sang-froid, and use your savoire-faire, when there's 
Downturn!
It's opportunity
Downturn! 
And then recovery
Downturn!
Things will be great later for you...

---the Petula Clark stock investor's newsletter

Syrah 3/12/2020 12:11:50 PM

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I’m Dentist ran out of face masks last week. 

He said that the only ones that are allowed (and good enough) for them to use are made out of country. 

Syrah 3/12/2020 12:13:46 PM

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Bernie is giving his Wuhan Virus Speech now.

Syrah 3/12/2020 12:14:51 PM

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Reply to Syrah in 28:

Shortened Version: “Free Stuff!”

Syrah 3/12/2020 12:49:52 PM

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When I first saw the images coming out of Wuhan 2 months ago, I found them to be frightening. 

It looked horrific. It looked like a nation in a complete meltdown, freak out panic. They were hosing down whole streets and the outsides of large buildings with mystery chemicals sprayed from giant fire truck sized fogger machines. Then they started hosing down people in the streets and inside buildings with back pack and hand held fogger machines. 

They built giant factory sized field hospitals, boarded people up in their apartments, and chased down people in the streets. 

It looked really bad.

But there are things about this that have given me pause. 

China has demographic problem. Europe shares that problem to a lesser extent. The US becoming worse in this area, but is no where near in as bad a shape as China or Europe.

That problem, is that a very large portion of their population is elderly. The high risk portion of their population is a sizable portion of their populations.

Also, when looking at Wuhan, in pictures and in video, it is hard to grasp just how large that city/region is. 41 million is a lot of people. That is roughly the population of California, all in a city and region that is equivalent to a city and county in the US. This distorts our perception of what we are seeing because we are bringing our experience of what a city and country looks like population wise.

Giant factory sized field hospitals make sense for a densely packed population of 41m people. It looks insanely frightening to someone from a city and county the size of Seattle/king County. (Pop 2.2m)

Then when the portion of the population that is high risk in Wuhan is compared to an average US city, it doesn’t compare well. Wuhan is older. So Wuhan will not only have worse total numbers, because there are that many more people there, the percentages will be much worse too, because the demographics are that much more skewed to the elderly in Wuhan.

We are not China. 

We don’t need to panic.

being cautious is good. Panicking is bad. 

PaladinPhil 3/12/2020 1:28:18 PM

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Afternoon all. Been a heck of a day. Our store is practically out of toilet paper. And there's apparently none in the pipeline or possibly even the warehouses. Minister of Education (Ontario) will be shutting down schools for two weeks after March break which is next week. 

Found out today that one victim of Covid-19 was at a conference that one of our co-workers wife had gone to. So pins and needles and tenter hooks all around. Did some more grocery shopping today, picked up two bottles of bleach, extra canned goods and dried goods.Will be making more jerky this coming week and dehydrating a bunch of other stuff as well. Am I panicking? Not quite yet but I am getting close. At least we don't have to worry about toilet paper. Wife grabbed a Costco bundle a few weeks ago because we were low.

JCM 3/12/2020 1:28:38 PM

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Reply to Syrah in 30:

Add the density in Wuhan, more people in smaller spaces, extended families with elderly at home. Some goes out shopping, picks it up and brings it home to 3 or 4 generations in a small dwelling.

Then the civic hygiene in China also contributes to spread.

doppelganglander 3/12/2020 1:46:55 PM

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Reply to JCM in 32:

IMO, the reason Wuhan was hit so hard is because the Chinese government lied about the risks. They denied it was happening until it was impossible to contain the virus. Iran has also been hard it and has not been forthcoming about the conditions; satellite imagery reveals mass graves and enormous shipments of lime to cover the bodies and hasten decomposition. I don't think it will get that bad here because, as you said, we have higher standards of hygiene in general and people are well informed and taking proper precautions. 

OTOH, some things that should have been done two weeks ago are only now happening. The US Capitol is finally closing to the general public tomorrow. The Smithsonian should be closed, along with every other museum, concert hall, sports arena, etc. As many people as possible should be working from home - not only to protect themselves, but to protect those that can't stay home. (My Brooklyn daughter has no choice but to take the subway, and she says it's been much emptier than usual. I strongly suggested she wear latex gloves on the train.) And while we're at it, close all the schools for two weeks. 

lucius septimius 3/12/2020 1:59:06 PM

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doppelganglander 3/12/2020 2:28:39 PM

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Reply to lucius septimius in 34:

It's appalling. I suppose it's wrong to speculate about the potential effects of Coronavirus on some elderly candidates and Congressional leaders.

Occasional Reader 3/12/2020 4:12:51 PM

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PaladinPhil 3/12/2020 4:40:32 PM

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Ever get the feeling that you haven't been paranoid enough?  Yeah, that's the feeling I have been getting all bloody day....

(and to think I wrote a book about part of this situation.....)

There's talk apparently that the CAN-USA border might be shut down. Don't know if it's pure rumour or not.

Kosh's Shadow 3/12/2020 4:50:55 PM

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Reply to vxbush in 9:

There are too many sane people taking precautions. I think there is something we are not being told.