Good morning. To repeat a short hypothesis I posted last night:
As to why those WWII-level estimates of Russian casualties in Ukraine may be credible:
We are seeing the first war in which a heavily mechanized army is running into widespread third generation antitank weapons. And that’s getting a lot of mounted troops killed.
And yes, as Kosh noted last night, a good deal of this might be attributable to Russian failures to train their forces in combined-arms tactics; but I think the decisive factor may be the new generation of weapons, in and of itself. An analogy would be to infantry in 1914 facing, for the first time on a large scale, this newfangled "machinegun".
Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty as to those Russian casualty figures; but it seems everyone except the most rabidly pro-Russia propagandists are estimating KIA at least in the high four-figures, to low five-figures. And that's a pace unlike anything a mechanized army has seen since the Second World War, as far as I know.
Occasional Reader
4/28/2022 6:54:29 AM
2
And, also on Russia/Ukraine; I cannot see SecDef Austin's bald declaration that "we want Russia weakened" as anything other than an astonishingly inept own-goal. This plays directly into Kremlin propaganda, and reinforces the idea to a nuclear-armed Putin that he has no "offramp".
Kosh's Shadow
4/28/2022 6:55:21 AM
3
Reply to Occasional Reader in 1:
And as I said last night
Also, the Russkies did not properly train for or operate mixed infantry and armored units, the way we learned in WWII. I read that a short while ago; will have to look it up tomorrow night or Friday. Both types of units have to work together.
I have a very long virtual on site interview today so won't be able to look up more until after 4 my time
Occasional Reader
4/28/2022 7:06:48 AM
4
In #3 Kosh's Shadow said: And as I said last night
(Which I explicitly referenced in my post)
Occasional Reader
4/28/2022 7:29:04 AM
5
We should be building Putin a golden... offramp. With a rest stop. And I mean, a pretty nice rest stop, with a good food court that even has a Chick-fil-A; as well as clean restrooms, and one of those wall maps that shows you nearby attractions, as well as hotel options.
JCM
4/28/2022 7:46:35 AM
6
The other big problem for Russia is the top down control. Everything is based on "THE PLAN" the grunts on the ground don't have the flexibility to alter the plan when the other side gets its vote in the matter.
vxbush
4/28/2022 8:18:04 AM
7
In #5 Occasional Reader said: We should be building Putin a golden... offramp. With a rest stop. And I mean, a pretty nice rest stop, with a good food court that even has a Chick-fil-A; as well as clean restrooms, and one of those wall maps that shows you nearby attractions, as well as hotel options.
I agree. This is the worst problem with Biden's surrogate war: there's no graceful way for Russia to de-escalate.
Droolin' Joe Droolin' Joe! Droolin' Joe Droolin' Joe! Where he is at any minute, he don't know He'll make incoherent statements While Psaki tries abatements But it's too little and too late For Droolin' Joe...
JCM
4/23/2022 7:27:18 PM
Kosh's Shadow
4/28/2022 6:55:21 AM
