vxbush 10/9/2020 5:55:18 AM

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Morning, campers. Time to do some math.

I want to share a term today that some of you may have already seen, but not considered. There is a term in epidemiology called "excess death count". It sounds horrible to most folks, but the idea is that you are counting the number of people who die from an illness or disease and consider it an additional cause of death beyond the "usual" ones. You track this by first coming up with an expected number of deaths based on the historical data. . 

I'm looking at the average daily deaths for the US. The CDC has the following histogram for 2017: 

I chose it because it was the first link in a Google search. Then, I compared this to the current chart of reported deaths from COVID-19. I can't easily imbed this here, but I created a screen capture and this is it: 

My screen shot includes a number from August 3, but look at the end. For October, the last date we have here is October 9 is at 972. If I compare this to the month with the smallest number of daily deaths, which is July at 7,157, then I calculate that we have roughly 13.6% of the daily deaths coming from COVID. We know the COVID death data is imprecise with deaths being recorded wrongly (folks dying in motorcycle accidents listed as COVID and other odd shenanigans), and what is being recorded in the bottom chart is the date that the death was recorded, not the date of actual death.

But I'm thinking we're awfully close to that "normal" amount of death, with just a small bump being seen from COVID. At this point, the deaths from COVID are getting smaller and harder to distinguish from noticeable excess deaths. But this isn't the good chart.

Now the following chart (source from CDC) tries to demonstrate the concept of excess deaths from COVID. Any part of the histogram where the number of deaths goes above the average for that month is marked with a plus sign. This chart uses weekly averages, not monthly, but same type of curve is present, with higher numbers at the beginning and ends of the year. Note when the chart ends. 

Huh. They stopped the chart just before August. Notice that the curve was already going down and was about to approach going under the expected death rate at the very end. And we know from the number of COVID deaths that it's been going down since August 8 (with the usual downticks weekly because of no one counting over the weekends). 

From looking over the data, it looks like we are past the point where COVID is causing problems beyond the usual number of deaths. We should start opening up, and now.

Folks, this is going beyond COVID theatre. This is now medical fraud. I don't know how else to put this. 

vxbush 10/9/2020 6:10:28 AM

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In #1 vxbush said: Now the following chart (source from CDC) tries to demonstrate the concept of excess deaths from COVID. Any part of the histogram where the number of deaths goes above the average for that month week is marked with a plus sign. This chart uses weekly averages, not monthly, but same type of curve is present, with higher numbers at the beginning and ends of the year. Note when the chart ends. 

Fixed. 

lucius septimius 10/9/2020 6:29:03 AM

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Reply to vxbush in 1:

Very interesting.  I'm always suspicious of stats that don't provide any context.  

vxbush 10/9/2020 6:39:14 AM

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In #3 lucius septimius said: Very interesting.  I'm always suspicious of stats that don't provide any context.  

And COVID stats have been terrible about that. They regularly present numbers without any context, to the point where "cases" is now seen as horrible as "deaths". 

And then there's the whole fiasco about PCR testing and how many negative test results have been pushed to be positive.....

lucius septimius 10/9/2020 7:08:02 AM

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Reply to vxbush in 4:

The goal has been to scare the bejeezus out of people so that they will bow their necks to the state.  

doppelganglander 10/9/2020 7:25:10 AM

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Reply to vxbush in 4:

Thanks for this. I have been asking what a "case" is for months. It's basically anything the counter says it is. They aren't distinguishing deaths FROM Covid from deaths WITH Covid. It will be years before an honest researcher can get all the numbers and sort them out, and in the meantime politicians are abusing our civil  liberties on the pretext of safety.

doppelganglander 10/9/2020 7:26:38 AM

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Reply to lucius septimius in 5:

Fearful people are willing to exchange freedom for a little temporary safety. What they get is permanent totalitarianism. 

JCM 10/9/2020 7:34:09 AM

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vxbush 10/9/2020 7:39:22 AM

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In #8 JCM said: One stat I cannot find is a control test in the general population. A randomly selected group of people tested to see what the exposure rate. 

I don't know if you would ever find that, as in this current political arena that would be considered inhuman treatment and go against the medical protocols to do no harm. 

JCM 10/9/2020 7:55:16 AM

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Reply to vxbush in 9:

I suspect we find a majority of the population positive for COVID. Be never symptomatic, and mean the virus is far less infectious than we're being told.

Which would make the masks and shutdowns even more non-sensical.

Occasional Reader 10/9/2020 8:08:29 AM

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In #9 vxbush said: as in this current political arena that would be considered inhuman treatment and go against the medical protocols to do no harm. 

That would be a stretch.  it's not that one would be infecting people with the virus, nor failing to inform them of their test results.  

turn 10/9/2020 8:09:57 AM

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In #1 vxbush said: Folks, this is going beyond COVID theatre. This is now medical fraud. I don't know how else to put this. 

Absolutely, and the lockdown was a failed experiment from the start.

A Failed Experiment 

JCM 10/9/2020 8:15:29 AM

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Reply to turn in 12:

Lockdown deaths will exceed actual COVID deaths.

turn 10/9/2020 8:19:35 AM

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In #1 vxbush said: This is now medical fraud.

The Covid fraud is also starting to unravel in Australia...

There is no Covid pandemic 

turn 10/9/2020 8:23:22 AM

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In #13 JCM said: Lockdown deaths will exceed actual COVID deaths.

In the long run, yes they will. Big mistake that lockdown. The American people should have been left free to determine their own fate. Let common sense prevail. 

Occasional Reader 10/9/2020 8:38:04 AM

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Little OR just made a pun.  He said:  Daddy, if I show you a picture of a baby kangaroo, you should say "awwww.... stralia!". 

turn 10/9/2020 8:41:58 AM

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Reply to Occasional Reader in 16:

You have a very sharp son, and by making that pun he’s obviously a chip off the old block! 

buzzsawmonkey 10/9/2020 8:47:29 AM

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Reply to Occasional Reader in 16:

++++++++++

lucius septimius 10/9/2020 8:58:33 AM

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Blinky has introduced a bill to form a 25th Amendment commission to decide that Trump is unfit for office.

This has moved beyond absurd.

Kosh's Shadow 10/9/2020 9:14:26 AM

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In #19 lucius septimius said: Blinky has introduced a bill to form a 25th Amendment commission to decide that Trump is unfit for office. This has moved beyond absurd.

She claims "It's not about Trump" - and  there is a bit of truth there.

What if (G-d forbid!) Biden wins? He's only the candidate because he's "electable". The Dems want to go full leftist, but that will lose the election,

So, should (again, G-d forbid!) Biden win, they pull this out, and we get President Harris. One of the furthest leftists in Congress.

vxbush 10/9/2020 9:44:05 AM

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In #10 JCM said: I suspect we find a majority of the population positive for COVID. Be never symptomatic, and mean the virus is far less infectious than we're being told. Which would make the masks and shutdowns even more non-sensical.

I would say it's a mix. The virus *is* infectious, more so than some illnesses, less so than others. And as my pulmonologist has had to deal with some of the COVID patients who get severely ill, it can be serious for some patients. 

But. 

The same is true of the flu some years. 

There is research to suggest that infection from other coronaviruses (like the common cold and flu) creates some immunity to the disease. 

The amount of viral infection determines how strong the immune response is, so a mild infection is actually better for you long term because you then generate antibodies (and there are folks who have been tested and confirmed to have antibodies without having any of the symptoms of COVID). The body is able to fight this off, which was one concern given that they were calling it a "novel" virus, and then they turned around and called it SARS-COV-2 because there was already a SARS-COV. 

The more I've researched into this, the shadier it gets. 

vxbush 10/9/2020 9:49:40 AM

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In #19 lucius septimius said: Blinky has introduced a bill to form a 25th Amendment commission to decide that Trump is unfit for office. This has moved beyond absurd.

Nowhere in that amendment does it say that a commission must be created or that a commission would be the only ones to determine Trump's fitness. She is trying to convert the amendment into her own personal approval party. 

vxbush 10/9/2020 9:55:52 AM

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In #22 vxbush said: Nowhere in that amendment does it say that a commission must be created or that a commission would be the only ones to determine Trump's fitness. She is trying to convert the amendment into her own personal approval party. 

Okay, I have to take that back. The wording does allow for a body identified by Congress--so Pelosi is trying to create such a body, and of course will want to pack it with Dems with the "right connections."

JCM 10/9/2020 10:12:54 AM

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More Voters Say They're Better off under Trump than When Obama, Bush Sought Re-election: Gallup Poll

This a major factor in re-elections.

Occasional Reader 10/9/2020 10:28:14 AM

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Reply to buzzsawmonkey in 18:

thank you! He’s here all week. Try the veal!

Occasional Reader 10/9/2020 10:44:54 AM

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Reply to JCM in 24:

That is really rather startling, considering everything that is going on.

buzzsawmonkey 10/9/2020 11:28:46 AM

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Instructions on "early voting" arrived at my building yesterday. One was addressed to someone who has not lived in the building for at least four years.

Now, there's no mail-in ballot in those "instructions"---but if the Board of Elections is sending such instructions to someone who's not been here for years, that alone is an indication that their records are seriously screwed up.

vxbush 10/9/2020 1:20:57 PM

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In #27 buzzsawmonkey said: Now, there's no mail-in ballot in those "instructions"---but if the Board of Elections is sending such instructions to someone who's not been here for years, that alone is an indication that their records are seriously screwed up.

I know someone who hasn't lived in our neighborhood for at least 5 years and a letter was delivered to that person. Thankfully I was able to notify them and sent them a link to the form to get their name removed from the rolls.