@PBJ3 3/2/2022 5:37:57 PM

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Kosh's Shadow 3/2/2022 5:54:11 PM

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In #1 @PBJ3 said: It looks like a friendly crowd at the pub/market!

Relaxed; certainly not rushin'

Occasional Reader 3/2/2022 6:59:07 PM

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Kosh's Shadow 3/2/2022 7:19:59 PM

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Occasional Reader 3/2/2022 7:22:47 PM

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Reply to @PBJ3 in 1:

Kill us a tank, you’re the Javelin Man!

Kiss us a tank, tonight

For we’re all in the mood for a victory

And you’ve got us feelin’ alright

Occasional Reader 3/2/2022 7:23:14 PM

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Reply to Occasional Reader in 5:

Gah.  Kill, not “Kiss”

Occasional Reader 3/2/2022 7:26:39 PM

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Reply to Occasional Reader in 3:

My thoughts. Which could be wrong.

1. Yes, Putin was hoping for a quick decapitation/capitulation strike; as evidenced by how forces were deployed.

2. That hasn’t worked. Nor have Russian forces performed as he’d hoped. But that doesn’t mean the Russians weren’t holding a Plan B, and perhaps a Plan C.

3. That revised plan will go much heavier on air and artillery; see Chechnya 2000.

4. Ukraine would be unlikely to be able to withstand that, and hold together as a coherent state.

5. But at the same time, the Russians would be hard-pressed to sustain a heavy occupation and counterinsurgency in the country. Putin likely knows that.

6. So: Who blinks? Are the Ukes willing to go guerrilla, for a long time, after their major cities are taken (and/or smashed)?

Again: This is my guess on where things stand, based in part on facts, in part on speculation. Lots of unknowns here, including unknown unknowns.

@PBJ3 3/2/2022 7:39:44 PM

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Reply to Occasional Reader in 6:

Kiss of death.

@PBJ3 3/2/2022 7:51:20 PM

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Reply to Occasional Reader in 7:

I try to stay on top of things but I'm not sure of anything either side has to say.  I'm definately on the side of Ukraine though and I feel they have a lot of guts.  I can't remember how I came across any tweets from Babak Taghvaee but I decided to follow him.  He writes articles and books about planes, etc., and is multi-lingual.  He's been covering this really well and if he reports something that turns out to be incorrect he corrects the report.

Kosh's Shadow 3/2/2022 9:38:45 PM

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Reply to Occasional Reader in 7:

I think there is a good chance Putin will be gone soon. Maybe not - I think this is only around 50% - but it is possible