Kosh's Shadow 6/18/2025 4:46:49 AM

1

JCM 6/18/2025 7:18:58 AM

2

Let's put a few data points on the table.

2,300-Kilometer Israeli Airstrike Destroys Iranian Aerial Refueling Tanker

Israel has to have been running a huge number of sorties, a very long way. The stuff I've seen says the F-16I Sufi has a unrefueled combat radius of 820km. A little more than half way to Tehran. That's about the same as the F-15s the IAF has.

The IAF has 7, 707s modified into air to air tankers. Not the purpose built KC-135. These stil use the JT8D engines.

7 tankers is not enough to maintain the operational tempo and range the IAF has been operating at.

Around 30 KC-135 and KC-46 tankers departed the U.S. headed to Europe, but their final destination is unknown.

It's pretty clear to me that we are providing tanker support to the IAF.

JCM 6/18/2025 7:23:32 AM

3

Reply to Kosh's Shadow in 1:

Absolutely.

Israel must have pretty solid intel that Iran is too close for comfort. Israel has had very good intelligence operations inside Iran and has for a long time. The last IAEA report was the final straw.

JCM 6/18/2025 8:33:30 AM

4

Reply to Kosh's Shadow in 1:

Additionally, getting to 60% is much harder that going from 60% to 90% need for a bomb.

Crossing that 60% is very reasonable red line.

Kosh's Shadow 6/18/2025 5:16:54 PM

5

In #3 JCM said: Israel must have pretty solid intel that Iran is too close for comfort. Israel has had very good intelligence operations inside Iran and has for a long time. The last IAEA report was the final straw.

Key Advance in Iran’s Nuclear Program Led Israel to Attack

Israel recently learned from its agents inside Iran — presumably native informants working with Mossad — that Iran’s nuclear scientists had successfully completed tests of their design of a nuclear weapon. This meant that Iran was potentially only weeks away from being able to produce such a weapon, and that intolerable threat had to be dealt with without delay.