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Reply to buzzsawmonkey in 11:
A quite dumb paywall. For security, I use a script blocker on FIrefox, and so it can't check to see if I am logged in - and assumes I am (instead of the smart move, assuming I am not)
5 Takeaways From the Times Analysis of Democratic Decline in Voter Registration Thirty states, as well as Washington, D.C., allow voters to register with a political party. Here’s what the data shows. Former Vice President Kamala Harris’s defeat in 2024 followed four years of falling voter registration figures for the Democratic Party. A new analysis by The New York Times of voter registration data nationwide shows the staggering scope of the Democratic decline. Thirty states, as well as Washington, D.C., allow voters to register with a political party. And the Democratic share of the electorate decreased in every one of those places between the 2020 and 2024 elections. At the same time, Republicans either expanded their advantage or closed the gap with Democrats in all of them. Here are five takeaways from the Times analysis of voter registration data compiled by L2, a nonpartisan data firm. Democrats are losing ground with new voters Some of the Democratic decline resulted from voters’ switching parties. Some of it was because older voters died or because people did not vote for so long that they fell off the rolls. But one of the more striking findings is the trend among newly registered voters away from the Democratic Party in the last six years. Many voters are choosing to be political independents by not registering with either major party. But of the people who do choose between the two main parties, the Democratic share has been cratering, according to the analysis. In 2018, Democrats accounted for 63 percent of voters who newly registered as either Democratic or Republican. By 2024, the party’s share had shrunk to less than 48 percent. Battleground states are swinging to the right Between the 2020 and 2024 elections, the Democratic Party lost its long-held registration edge in states such as Florida and New Hampshire, according to state records. That means registered Republicans now outnumber registered Democrats in those states. And if current trends hold, more states will similarly flip. Nevada briefly tipped into the Republican column this year, though it has seesawed in the months since, with Democrats now clinging to a 3,775-voter registration edge, according to state data published in August. Simply put, the Democratic edge in the swing states has been vanishing: 5.3 percentage points gone in Pennsylvania between 2020 and 2024; 3.5 percentage points eroded in North Carolina; and 4.5 percentage points erased in Nevada, according to the analysis of L2 data. In Arizona, the only swing state were Republicans held a registration edge in 2020, the G.O.P. advantage swelled by 3.9 percentage points in 2024. The gender gap is a growing problem — for Democrats The split between men and women, or the gender gap, is decades old but has been particularly pronounced in the Trump era. Women have tended to support Democrats at higher rates, while men have backed Republicans, if by smaller margins. But the analysis of the registration data tells a different story, one in which the Republican strength among men far outpaces the Democratic edge among women. In 2024, the Republican advantage among men who were newly registering to vote with a major party was double the Democratic edge among women. More than 60 percent of men who registered with a major party became Republicans in 2024, while only 55 percent of women became Democrats. That roughly 10-point edge for Democrats among new female voters last year is down drastically from 2018, when the party enjoyed a gargantuan — nearly 38-percentage-point — advantage. More younger voters are opting for the G.O.P. The numbers look similarly bad for Democrats among younger voters. People under 45 years old accounted for 65 percent of new registrations in the last seven years. And a once sizable Democratic edge among those new younger voters has disappeared entirely. In 2018, nearly two-thirds of new registrants under 45 who had picked one of the two major parties were Democrats. In 2024, Republicans were an outright majority. Democrats lost ground among older new registrants, too. But the decline was far less severe. The Democratic share of new voters under 45 dropped three times as fast between 2020 and 2024 as it did among older Americans. It isn’t getting any better for Democrats yet There has been some hope in Democratic circles that the movement away from the party will reverse itself now that President Trump is back in the White House, and that a backlash to his aggressive policy agenda will show up on the registration rolls. That hasn’t happened yet, though it is still very early. Across all 30 states and Washington, D.C., there are now roughly 160,000 fewer registered Democrats than on Election Day in 2024, according to L2’s data, and 200,000 more Republicans. The registration data into 2025 is limited. States often clean up their rolls after elections, purging inactive voters. But the story would be even bleaker for Democrats if New York and New Jersey — which just held robust Democratic primaries for mayor and governor that presumably increased registrations — were excluded. Outside those two states, Democrats are down roughly 430,000 registered voters since November.
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vxbush
8/20/2025 5:23:52 AM
Kosh's Shadow
8/20/2025 6:17:41 AM