In #2 Kosh's Shadow said: If 3I/Atlas is interested in a planet in our Solar System, it looks like it is Jupiter.3I/Atlas changed its trajectory so that it or objects it releases can be captured by Jupiter's gravity (after slowing down - easier for smaller probes)
The nongravitational acceleration was just enough to make it possible. Another coincidence?
Okay, one note here involving zero in statistics, based on my studies and research: In order for something to be considered statistically impossible with a probability of zero, the calculated odds need to be less than 10 to the -50th power (10^-50). So if you want me to believe that the odds of this course change are NOT the result of gravitational forces or other natural phenomena (such as the odd shape of the object), you would need to convince me the odds are closer to that number. 1 in 26,000 corresponds to 0.000003846153846, which isn't anywhere close enough to 10^-50 for my taste.
I'm still willing to consider this a natural phenomenon, although any changes in behavior will absolutely change my opinion.
What treaties are in place, if any, about the militarization of space? A quick Google search leads me to the UN Outer Space Treaty, which goes back January 1967 and started being "enforced" (yeah, right) in October 1967. Space law is something where I am wildly out of my depth.
And, if 3I/Atlas turns out to be not natural, law may come into play here, too.....
Still not the 10^50th to make it "impossible" but certainly unusual. (I need to run the calculations from that article myself, though. That was from a comment.)
vxbush
11/24/2025 7:27:01 AM
9
In #8 Kosh's Shadow said: Still not the 10^50th to make it "impossible" but certainly unusual. (I need to run the calculations from that article myself, though. That was from a comment.)
He's presenting P values, so he's determining the chance this is possible given a null hypothesis--which I am assuming is that the anomaly is simply a result of chance. I'm talking about the probability of something occurring without making any presumption of any hypothesis. Slightly different beasts.
Summary gives jpint probability around 2.4*10-30 but I have not read the entire paper yet
Kosh's Shadow
11/24/2025 7:36:43 AM
11
In #1 Kosh's Shadow said: Two flying saucers have just landed on my plate.
This is where that quote comes from; FIresign Theatre, "Everything You Know is Wrong" - and since it includes the line "men and women are the same sex", well - that is from the 1970's, too
vxbush
11/24/2025 8:04:58 AM
12
In #10 Kosh's Shadow said: A more sophisticated paper on the 3I/Atlas statustics.
Ooo! And it mentions Bayesian analysis being used! I think reading that paper would be very helpful. Thanks. I'll see if I can squeeze in a few minutes to read this.
JCM
11/24/2025 8:29:17 AM
13
Reply to Kosh's Shadow in 2:
One headline I saw... Comet Approaching Earth!
Poor 3I/Atlas came all this way just to break up.
Kosh's Shadow
11/24/2025 8:41:53 AM
14
Reply to JCM in 13: There is a lot of crap on the internet. I generally report on actual data - and it was clear from the initial trajectory it was unlikely 3I/Atlas was going to Earth.
Kosh's Shadow
11/24/2025 8:43:27 AM
15
In #13 JCM said: Poor 3I/Atlas came all this way just to break up.
Two AIs on board decided they don't love each other any more and are looking for an alien divorce lawyer./////
Kosh's Shadow
11/24/2025 9:10:08 AM
16
In #10 Kosh's Shadow said: Summary gives jpint probability around 2.4*10-30 but I have not read the entire paper yet
I just multiplied out the probabilities in the original article and got 2.4^10-31
JCM
11/23/2025 5:10:56 PM
Kosh's Shadow
11/23/2025 8:37:38 PM