JCM 4/8/2026 6:40:39 AM

1

In #4 Occasional Reader said: Genuinely not sure what to make of this “two weeks cease-fire“.

Reply to Occasional Reader in 4:

Me either. I'm a kind of the floggings will continue until morale improves kind of guy.

A pause give the regime time to plan and maybe get some more offensive capabilities on deck.

My earnest hope is the Persian People give the regime a necktie party.

Kosh's Shadow 4/8/2026 6:48:42 AM

2

Reply to JCM in 1:

Iran launched attacks just as the hudna was being announced.

I don't think anyone is in complete control in Iran

Kosh's Shadow 4/8/2026 7:06:22 AM

3

Reply to Kosh's Shadow in 2:

From PJM:

And Iran launched an attack as the hudna was being announced.
At this point, I don't think any one group is in charge in Iran.
The "civilian" leadership I think wants to preserve Iran so it can fight more later; the IRGC appears willing to martyr every Iranian.

JCM 4/8/2026 7:43:17 AM

4

Reply to Kosh's Shadow in 2:

The IRGC has, as I understand it, standing orders to fire at will if the command and control is disrupted.